Green Dreams
A friend asked me, ‘What is the one thing we must do in the face of the planetary crisis?’ My answer, ‘nothing’, was both a typically facetious response but also one that reflected my philosophical preference for inaction. Faced with an age when the ideology of progress has us all in its thrall, passivity offers a counterweight to the frenetic energy that drives our collective notions of futurity. Progress demands change. To deny it is to challenge an ideology whose development is precisely concurrent with the Global North’s capture of lands in the South where export crops were privileged over existing local, sustainable economies and where land-hungry settlers violently repressed or replaced native peoples. Cheap labor, even cheaper resources, generous doses of cut-rate exoticism and the historical revenues of slavery still underpin contemporary capitalism – the financial lynchpin of progress.
Modernity runs on progress, and progress, for the last two hundred and fifty years, has run on fossil fuels. Now, various predictions of disaster power many of our transformative urges. But a passive acceptance of the present, without straining to parse the future, offers up opportunities to reflect on the hard points within which we live our lives. It is these physical, biological, and statistical constraints that Vaclav Smil describes in, How the World Really Works, 2022. His book offers a rational response to the viral contagions spread by global climate catastrophists and the technological and behavioral antidotes they prescribe. Smil eschews predictions and notes their failures such as the nostrum of ‘Peak Oil’. Confidently forecast since the 1920’s it was hyped as an existential crisis between the 1990’s and the early 2000’s when dire forecasts of energy depletion prompted the Transition-Town movement which, for a decade or more, successfully promoted a boutique, pre-industrial, carbon-free, self-sufficiency. (Full disclosure: I dabbled in the movement shortly after arriving in Ojai, in 2010). Peak oil scenarios are now usually framed in terms of demand rather than supply and it is the demand side that is expected to peak mid-century.
Smil emphasizes the complexity and continuity inherent in both natural and industrial systems and the physical limits to their disruption. He suggests that basic strategies for reducing energy usage are more efficacious than prescribing a massive shift in sourcing energy – from fossil to renewables (sun, wind, hydro and nuclear). In other words, do not do much of anything other than practice commonsense economies in energy use. He singles out the improved insulation of buildings and incremental improvements in the efficiency of the combustion motors that power cars, trucks, ships and planes as key strategies.
Smil emphasizes that industrial civilization (the fatal combination of Modernity and fossil fuels) remains entirely dependent on the energy density of fossilized biomass. The power to weight ratio of current and foreseeable storage batteries severely limits their application to heavy goods vehicles, where power demands would result in the weight of batteries largely replacing carrying capacity. Similarly, there is no likely electrical replacement for bunker-fueled cargo ships or kerosene powered passenger and cargo airplanes. Additionally, oil remains vital as a feedstock for the chemical, plastics, and fertilizer industries, and fossil fuels are essential to the production of the high temperatures required in the manufacture of steel and cement.
For some time now, liberals in the North have been scaring themselves to death with the terrors of global heating. The analog terrors of the green-house effect have been replaced by the digital palpitations of the parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. That metric stands at over 420, per the observatory at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, which represents a more than 50% increase over the pre-industrial levels of CO2 in the late eighteenth century. Despite the fear and trembling, there is no concerted effort to roll back the industrial civilization which is the proximate cause of that numerical escalation and its subsequent impact on annual, mean global temperatures.
There is good reason for this lack of revolutionary fervor. Much of the world would starve without the processing of oil because of its role in the manufacture of fertilizer and in the transportation of grain across the world’s oceans. Doing nothing (beyond nibbling at the softer edges of the fossil fuel/climate conundrum) turns out to be the most humancentric way forward. Excepting the radical ideology of Earth Firsters, where humans are not privileged over other life-forms, the fundamental hypocrisy of the green movement resides in their refusal to accept the consequence of massive famine in moving to a carbon neutral world.
I would suggest that there is a global ethical responsibility to maintain the processing of methane (natural gas) into nitrogen rich fertilizers and to maintain the oceanic, fossil-fueled transshipment of grain to feed the world. As we approach a global population of 8 billion, this is no time to revert to pre-industrial agriculture, unless we are prepared for a massive die-off in the human species. Only a chemically and mechanically augmented agriculture can reliably feed the planet’s engorged population. While we can collectively pursue a moderated birth rate, already in place in many industrially advanced countries, a global decline in population is only projected to occur after it peaks at 9.4 billion in 2070 before beginning a gentle decline to 9 billion in 2100.
As Smil and others argue, it is reasonable to presume that peoples in the Global South wish to enjoy the civilizational advantages of industrialization – which will inevitably increase their energy use. Ideally, those of us in the Global North can moderate our consumption and by example, moderate the aspirations of the Global South. But aware that it was their labor and their resources that enriched the advanced areas of the world which are now the most profligate consumers of fossil fuels, developing countries are more concerned with industrializing than in mitigating the climate sins of the North - even as visible sea level rise threatens their tropical islands in Micronesia, forest fires threaten their crops and homes across Indonesia, or storm surges destroy their mangrove swamps in the Sundarbans of Bangladesh.
In Bright Green Lies, 2021, Derrick Jensen, the ‘deep green’ propogandist, is typically adamant in his condemnation of industrial civilization. He notes that we have a zero-sum choice between its survival and the survival of the planet. But he suggests that the latter is possible, including its human population, if we attend to strictly human needs, not our luxuries, not our addictions, and not our industry and commerce. He does not broach the issue of feeding 8 billion people with an organic, pre-modern agriculture. Others have, however, and John Reganold, writing in the peer reviewed journal, Nature Plants, has found the rosiest scenario is that it is theoretically possible if the entire global population is vegan. This does not account for the distribution of food to population centers, although such a draconian socio-economic and dietary disruption might well include a Pol Pot style mass relocation of urban dwellers to the countryside. Reganold also bizarrely assumes a continuation of commerce and industry in which entrepreneurship and profit feature prominently.
Jensen, however, does make some useful observations with respect to the inherent inefficiencies of solar technologies, particularly regarding the discontinuities of solar and wind and the lack of available, economically viable storage systems. He also points out that building the infrastructure necessary to provide a sustainable energy supply will rely on the use of fossil fuels. As already indicated, many industrial processes will continue to rely on oil and gas, and chemical plants on fossil feed stocks. Egregious despoliation of habitat is already underway in the mining of the rare earth minerals and the copper vital to solar and wind technologies, their storage batteries or the electrical grid they will supply. The exponential growth of mining activity to service the global scaling of green energy will only further devastate the wildlands where these elements are sourced, and multiply the carbon footprint of the giant diesel-powered earth moving equipment that are the agents of its destruction. Along the way, Jensen systematically exposes the “Lies” necessary to a continuing belief in the “Green” miracles of Recycling, City Living, Hydropower, and more.
If the transition to a sustainable energy economy is a fiction, then perhaps it is appropriate that the Sci-Fi novelist, Kim Stanley Robinson, tackles the subject in The Ministry for the Future, 2020. The novel begins with a vivid description of a heat wave in the north of India where the wet bulb temperature scales beyond 35 degrees Celsius – a point where prolonged exposure results in death because the body can no longer use evaporative cooling, via sweat, to control its internal temperature. Wet bulb temperatures are a combined metric of heat and humidity measured by wrapping a damp cloth around a thermometer and reading the temperature at which evaporation occurs.
Death by heat and humidity is a commonplace in America. In 2021, seventy-two people died in Portland’s heat-dome event where temperatures reached 46 Celsius in high humidity. In Robinson’s novel, millions die in Utta Pradesh as the grid fails under extreme air-conditioner loads. This event finally spurs the political world into action, and he recounts the technological, bureaucratic, and financial machinations necessary to eventually lower atmospheric levels of CO2. His future-world of moderate temperatures is achieved through geoengineering, an equitable social economy, solar powered dirigibles and sailing ships, humane animal husbandry, and permaculture farming.
Along with convincing examples of innovative technologies to meet the challenge of global heating, all grounded in real-world physics and earth sciences, Robinson resorts to the work of a deus ex machina in the shape of a network of eco-terrorists he styles as the Children of Kali. It is they who successfully bomb power plants, down jetliners, and destroy CAFO’s (Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations) – thus enabling him to write what amounts to an oxymoron: an ultimately optimistic Cli-Fi novel.
His work can be viewed as an elaborate up-dating of The Monkey Wrench Gang, 1975, Edward Abbey’s magisterial tale of eco-terrorism set in the early 1970’s. It points to the vastly more complex world we live in, fifty years on. We have moved from one fictional act of eco-terrorism to another. Putting sugar in the diesel tanks of earth-moving equipment poised to begin construction of the Glen Canyon Dam, on the Colorado river, seems quaintly antique compared to the downing of airliners with rocket propelled grenades.
But Robinson’s fictional, or Jensen’s hypothetical extreme measures may be necessary to pierce the veil of green hypocrisies which now camouflage the addition of solar technologies to the available industrial and consumer resources – all designed to enrich the few. Make no mistake, as Smil confirms, solar is an addition to, not a replacement of, current fossil-based energy consumption. Its promotion (including the production of electric cars) encourages a continuation of excessive resource extraction from an already beleaguered planet. It is, in short, a classic neo-liberal boondoggle.
In the circumstances, doing nothing may well be an act of radical revolt against the overwhelmingly negative implications of further progress.